Utility of laboratory and immune biomarkers in predicting disease progression and mortality among patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 disease at a Philippine tertiary hospital

Purpose This study was performed to determine the clinical biomarkers and cytokines that may be associated with disease progression and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of hospitalized patients with RT-PCR confirmed moderate to severe COVID-19 infection from October 2020 to September 2021, during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic before the advent of vaccination. Patients and methods Clinical profile was obtained from the medical records. Laboratory parameters (complete blood count [CBC], albumin, LDH, CRP, ferritin, D-dimer, and procalcitonin) and serum concentrations of cytokines (IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-18, IFN-γ, IP-10, TNF-α) were measured on Days 0-3, 4-10, 11-14 and beyond Day 14 from the onset of illness. Regression analysis was done to determine the association of the clinical laboratory biomarkers and cytokines with the primary outcomes of disease progression and mortality. ROC curves were generated to determine the predictive performance of the cytokines. Results We included 400 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection, 69% had severe to critical COVID-19 on admission. Disease progression occurred in 139 (35%) patients, while 18% of the total cohort died (73 out of 400). High D-dimer >1 µg/mL (RR 3.5 95%CI 1.83–6.69), elevated LDH >359.5 U/L (RR 1.85 95%CI 1.05–3.25), lymphopenia (RR 1.91 95%CI 1.14–3.19), and hypoalbuminemia (RR 2.67, 95%CI 1.05–6.78) were significantly associated with disease progression. High D-dimer (RR 3.95, 95%CI 1.62–9.61) and high LDH (RR 5.43, 95%CI 2.39–12.37) were also significantly associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Nonsurvivors had significantly higher IP-10 levels at 0 to 3, 4 to 10, and 11 to 14 days from illness onset (p<0.01), IL-6 levels at 0 to 3 days of illness (p=0.03) and IL-18 levels at days 11-14 of illness (p<0.001) compared to survivors. IP-10 had the best predictive performance for disease progression at days 0-3 (AUC 0.81, 95%CI: 0.68–0.95), followed by IL-6 at 11-14 days of illness (AUC 0.67, 95%CI: 0.61–0.73). IP-10 predicted mortality at 11-14 days of illness (AUC 0.77, 95%CI: 0.70–0.84), and IL-6 beyond 14 days of illness (AUC 0.75, 95%CI: 0.68–0.82). Conclusion Elevated D-dimer, elevated LDH, lymphopenia and hypoalbuminemia are prognostic markers of disease progression. High IP-10 and IL-6 within the 14 days of illness herald disease progression. Additionally, elevated D-dimer and LDH, high IP-10, IL-6 and IL-18 were also associated with mortality. Timely utilization of these biomarkers can guide clinical monitoring and management decisions for COVID-19 patients in the Philippines.

Utility of laboratory and immune biomarkers in predicting disease progression and mortality among patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 disease at a Philippine tertiary hospital.

Purpose: This study was performed to determine the clinical biomarkers and cytokines that may be associated with disease progression and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of hospitalized patients with RT-PCR confirmed moderate to severe COVID-19 infection from October 2020 to September 2021, during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic before the advent of vaccination. Patients and methods: Clinical profile was obtained from the medical records. Laboratory parameters (complete blood count [CBC], albumin, LDH, CRP, ferritin, D-dimer, and procalcitonin) and serum concentrations of cytokines (IL-1ß, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-18, IFN-γ, IP-10, TNF-α) were measured on Days 0-3, 4-10, 11-14 and beyond Day 14 from the onset of illness. Regression analysis was done to determine the association of the clinical laboratory biomarkers and cytokines with the primary outcomes of disease progression and mortality. ROC curves were generated to determine the predictive performance of the cytokines. Results: We included 400 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection, 69% had severe to critical COVID-19 on admission. Disease progression occurred in 139 (35%) patients, while 18% of the total cohort died (73 out of 400). High D-dimer >1 µg/mL (RR 3.5 95%CI 1.83-6.69), elevated LDH >359.5 U/L (RR 1.85 95%CI 1.05-3.25), lymphopenia (RR 1.91 95%CI 1.14-3.19), and hypoalbuminemia (RR 2.67, 95%CI 1.05-6.78) were significantly associated with disease progression. High D-dimer (RR 3.95, 95%CI 1.62-9.61) and high LDH (RR 5.43, 95%CI 2.39-12.37) were also significantly associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Nonsurvivors had significantly higher IP-10 levels at 0 to 3, 4 to 10, and 11 to 14 days from illness onset (p<0.01), IL-6 levels at 0 to 3 days of illness (p=0.03) and IL-18 levels at days 11-14 of illness (p<0.001) compared to survivors. IP-10 had the best predictive performance for disease progression at days 0-3 (AUC 0.81, 95%CI: 0.68-0.95), followed by IL-6 at 11-14 days of illness (AUC 0.67, 95%CI: 0.61-0.73). IP-10 predicted mortality at 11-14 days of illness (AUC 0.77, 95%CI: 0.70-0.84), and IL-6 beyond 14 days of illness (AUC 0.75, 95%CI: 0.68-0.82). Conclusion: Elevated D-dimer, elevated LDH, lymphopenia and hypoalbuminemia are prognostic markers of disease progression. High IP-10 and IL-6 within the 14 days of illness herald disease progression. Additionally, elevated D-dimer and LDH, high IP-10, IL-6 and IL-18 were also associated with mortality. Timely utilization of these biomarkers can guide clinical monitoring and management decisions for COVID-19 patients in the Philippines.

Prevalence and prognostic associations of cardiac abnormalities among hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Although most patients recover from COVID-19, it has been linked to cardiac, pulmonary, and neurologic complications. Despite not having formal criteria for its diagnosis, COVID-19 associated cardiomyopathy has been observed in several studies through biomarkers and imaging. This study aims to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 patients with cardiac abnormalities and to determine the association between the cardiac abnormalities in COVID-19 patients and disease severity and mortality. Observational studies published from December 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020 were obtained from electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CNKI) and preprint servers (medRxiv, bioRxiv, ChinaXiv). Studies that have data on prevalence were included in the calculation of the pooled prevalence, while studies with comparison group were included in the calculation of the odds ratio. If multiple tests were done in the same study yielding different prevalence values, the largest one was used as the measure of prevalence of that particular study. Metafor using R software package version 4.0.2 was used for the meta-analysis. A total of 400 records were retrieved from database search, with 24 articles included in the final analysis. Pooled prevalence of cardiac abnormalities in 20 studies was calculated to be 0.31 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI) of (0.23; 0.41)], with statistically significant heterogeneity (percentage of variation or I-squared statistic I2 = 97%, p < 0.01). Pooled analysis of 19 studies showed an overall odds ratio (OR) of 6.87 [95%-CI (3.92; 12.05)] for cardiac abnormalities associated with disease severity and mortality, with statistically significant heterogeneity (I2 = 85%, between-study variance or tau-squared statistic τ2 = 1.1485, p < 0.01). Due to the high uncertainty in the pooled prevalence of cardiac abnormalities and the unquantifiable magnitude of risk (although an increased risk is certain) for severity or mortality among COVID-19 patients, much more long-term prognostic studies are needed to check for the long-term complications of COVID-19 and formalize definitive criteria of "COVID-19 associated cardiomyopathy".